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Within the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.